Ayvens has launched its Mobility 2025 Study, which once again reinforces that electric vehicles continue to be the most competitive option for corporate fleets, with 48 of the 68 possible profiles in the Ayvens total cost of ownership (TCO) matrix. Ayvens' annual analysis also highlights the impact of European regulations on CO2 emissions and the introduction of new technologies driven by Chinese competitors.
- 100% electric vehicles (BEVs) continue to be the most competitive option for corporate fleets, winning 48 profiles out of a possible 68 in the Ayvens total cost of ownership (TCO) matrix
- The 2025 tax changes represent a relief from the tax burden for company fleets, with a reduction in autonomous tax rates and an increase in the purchase cost brackets
- The new CO2 limits in Europe (15% less than in 2021) will require car manufacturers (OEMs) to sell twice as many BEVs to avoid paying fines
- Despite the European Commission's proposed relaxation of the CO2 standards regulation, manufacturers are expected to invest more than ever in electric mobility
- Portugal is a leader in the transition to electric vehicles in southern Europe
- In 2024, the sale of EVs in leasing grew to a 50 per cent share of deliveries - 1 in 2 vehicles sold by Ayvens is electrified
- In the current context, companies continue to be the main accelerator of the transition to electric mobility
From 2025, OEMs will have to reduce the average CO2 emissions of new vehicles sold by 15 per cent, making them comply with more demanding obligations than those introduced in 2021. This year, the average emissions of these vehicles will have to be 93.6 gCO2/km, under penalty of large fines. Although the European Commission recently proposed giving manufacturers flexibility between 2025-2027 to meet these targets, it is expected that manufacturers will have to invest in electric mobility more than ever.
In an increasingly competitive market and with the aim of regaining market share, European manufacturers are forced to balance production costs and invest in technological innovation, as Chinese brands are expected to continue to grow in Europe in 2025.
The EV market in Europe went through a period of slowdown during 2024, greatly influenced by the poor performance of the German market, which, with the suspension of subsidies between December 2023 and September 2024, greatly affected the performance of these motorisations. In addition, the demands of the CO2 targets for 2025 have led many OEMs to postpone their deliveries until the beginning of the year, in order to make room for meeting the targets.
The Mobility 2025 Study indicates that this is the first drop in European trends. Even so, BEVs have a greater share of the market, with 13.12 per cent, compared to diesel vehicles, which have seen their share fall to 12.44 per cent. In 2024, the share of plug-in hybrids also fell from 7.71 per cent in 2023 to 6.89 per cent.
In Portugal, the figures show that electric vehicles are taking centre stage, with a market share of 18% - making it an incomparably more mature country than its counterparts in southern Europe. Sales shares of EVs in Portugal exceed the figures for the UK, France and Germany.
In Portugal, the first three quarters of 2024 show that BEVs are the preferred motorisation of the Portuguese, after petrol vehicles. As in Europe, diesel vehicles have been penalised, with their market share falling: from 12% in the first three quarters of 2023 to 8.7% at the end of the third half of 2024 - a drop of more than 3% in sales. Petrol engines, on the other hand, fell by just half a point
The study indicates that more than 50 new BEV models with more affordable purchase prices are expected to hit the market this year. European manufacturers intend to invest in local battery production, with the same goal in mind: to make BEVs more attractive to consumers.
When** analysing Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)**, Ayvens estimates that, following last year's trend, according to which EVs would already be more competitive in 88% of passenger vehicle segments for mileages of 30,000 km/year; by 2025, electric vehicles will remain the most economical choice for fleet managers.
There are reasons to believe that electric mobility is here to stay. The year 2025 is essentially a year of adaptation and redefinition for the automotive sector. Electric vehicles will become an essential part of the global automotive offer, no longer just a trend. At a time when manufacturers are facing demanding transition scenarios, we will continue to support our customers in their decisions and remain attentive to market volatility.
The Mobility 2025 Study offers a clear and distinct vision of the main challenges and trends that will define mobility in 2025, and is written and shared with the aim of helping fleet managers and strategic decision-makers make informed decisions.
You can access the Mobility 2025 Study via the button below:
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